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b/d of crude oil production Mad Dog Phase 2 ning or adhering to environmental or emissions po-
project in the deepwater of the Gulf of Mexico. Af- licies (witness the possible consequences of COP
ter an initial design proved too complex and costly, 21); big lifestyle changes but above all huge and
BP, other co-owners and the contractors involved often unpredictable technology breakthroughs.
have re-evaluated the project, simplified and stan- In this new scenario, the most competitive players
dardized the platform’s design, achieving in the end (energy companies, general contractors, manufac-
an overall cost reduction of about 60%. When it turers, service providers alike) will be those which
comes on stream in late 2021, this mega-project will adapt most quickly to the realities and needs of
is expected to be profitable at or below current oil the new, current market environment, and which
prices. will reduce their costs and improve performance in
order to provide better solutions which will be eco-
Conclusions nomical in the ….”new normal”.

Following the oil price drop of more than two years
ago, the global energy supply and demand picture Acknowledgements
has found, most likely, a new balance, a “new nor- The author is immensely grateful to the team of
mal”, with oil prices firstly stabilized at over 50 $/bl colleagues from numerous companies who contri-
and with expectations of a gradual but slow increa- buted with their experience and numerous insights
se to 60 $/bl by the end of 2018, possibly up to 70 to the analysis and discussion of market trends:
-80 $/bl by the end of the decade. Strong energy Stefano Donzelli of AMEC FW, Francesco Maestri
demand growth should be balanced by new reser- from Ansaldo Energia, Dario Pirovano and others
ves coming into play and by new suppliers – e.g. from MaireTecnimont, Roberto Boi and Paolo
Iran. Clemente Ghinzani of Saipem, Giacomo Franchi-
ni from SupplHi, Mauro Montefiore and Francesco
The most competitive players will be Cammarata of Technip.
those who will most quickly adapt, reduce
their costs and improve performance in In particular, we appreciate the patience, persisten-
ce and attention of Marco Pepori as the outstanding
order to provide solutions economical in organizer of the 22 Annual Meeting of ANIMP”s
nd
this “new normal” scenario Industrial Component Manufacturers Division (Oc-
tober 2016), where this work was presented in the
plenary session “Market forecasts and strategies
But it would be a grave mistake to over-simplify the for the plant engineering industry”.
oil&gas economics. In reality, we are entering a new
era, which witnesses a huge impact from factors Last but not least, many thanks to Saipem for al-
hitherto believed to be less influential, such as ge- lowing me to use some truly breathtaking photo-
opolitics; the role of Governments, e.g. in determi- graphs.

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