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NATIONAL OIL COMPANY

Ogarrio with Dea Deutsche Erdoel and Cárdenas a common perception that Pemex is ultimately
Mora with Cheiron Holdings) will not be cancelled. backstopped by the Mexican government – so
In fact, in December 2018, Mexico’s oil regulator, that it cannot fail. This might be even truer under
CNH, postponed Pemex farmout tenders for se- AMLO’s long-term policy and given his strong
ven onshore areas previously planned for 2019 and sway over the Federal National Congress which
canceled two competitive auctions that were also will back his defensive policies towards Pemex or
planned for December 2018. any last resort aid package. Under this point of
Based on AMLO’s public declarations, it looks like view there is no real risk of a collapse of Pemex.
he will put Pemex at the center of a leftist or, under However, it has also been pointed out that the
a more economic perspective, Keynesian, political problem could go the other way, so that Pemex
strategy whereby the Mexican Federal state will might put at risk the very stability of the AMLO
launch a great number of public works and sta- government if, at a certain point, it may prove to
te investments to relaunch the national economy, be too onerous to be saved. The overall situation
create jobs and fi ght a neo-liberal economic model of the Mexican economy also is not very good,
considered to be a total failure. as 2018 growth was 2.2% and, according to
International Monetary Fund estimates, was ex-
During the political campaign, pected to be 2.5% in 2019 and on track to reach
AMLO had, on various 3% by 2022. But cancellation of the construc-
tion of the new Mexico City airport which drai-
“occasions, taken a public ned private investment in the country as well as
position against the estimates that the US economy will soon enter
into recession do not provide a positive outlook
privatization of the oil and gas for the Mexican economy. With substantially the
sector that was approved under entire Latin American region also under the go-
Peña Nieto vernment of conservative leaders and with Presi-
dent Trump in the White House, AMLO appears
to be isolated from an international point of view.
Risk Analysis and Forecasts Should economic and geopolitical factors exces-
sively weaken the AMLO government, or even
Pemex is, if not on the brink of a fi nancial col- worse derail him, Pemex will lose its strongest
lapse, sitting on real shaky foundations but, as protector and a period of uncertainty will open up
many commentators have pointed out, there is for the Mexican NOC.

Paolo M. Gangi

Paolo M. Gangi is an Italian lawyer and international business consultant. He was admitted to the Bar in
Rome in 2005 and later has been in private practice until 2012, dealing with commercial and business
law. Paolo later moved on to operate as an international business consultant, working with his own com-
pany, i2p Consulting, in international business development, geopolitical and business risk intelligence,
and sanctions and compliance advisory, with a particular focus in relation to Latin American countries. In
2018, with other partners he founded Latin America 2B, an online platform and publication unit dedicated
to Latin American geopolitical and commercial intelligence.

82 82 Impiantistica Italiana - Maggio-Giugno 2019