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With declining oil prices since riod to 2019. Currently, Infield Systems forecasts
mid-2014, the subsea sector subsea tree orders to be up some 16% over the
has seen a sharp fall in tree 2015-2019 timeframe compared with the previous
orders, with Infield Systems five year period, with a potential Capex Cagr growth
seeing a 29% reduction in of over 11% across the entire subsea sector.
demand between the second The deepwater giants of Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico
and third quarters of 2014. With this dramatic shift (GoM) and West Africa are expected to continue
in the short-term global outlook, Infield Systems to drive demand over the longer term, with Infield
brings to the market its 2015 Subsea Market Re- Systems expecting the ultra-deepwater market (≥
port to 2019. 1,500 m) to rebound from 2016 onwards. Indeed,
Examining the global market over the forthcoming global ultra-deepwater expenditure is forecast to
five years and shedding light on how the subsea account for 51% of demand over the entire five year
market is likely to be affected by the recent chan- period to 2019. At the same time, Infield Systems
ges in oil prices and continued volatility within the expects Asia and Australasia to see significant de-
market. Indeed, low oil prices have prompted E&P mand increases over the forecast timeframe, with
companies to re-evaluate their strategies, parti- these two regions not expected to be affected by
cularly regarding those deep and ultra-deepwater the drop in subsea tree orders seen elsewhere in
projects with high associated risks. Due to the na- 2014.
ture of such developments the subsea sector has, From an operator perspective, Petrobras is ex-
and is likely to continue to see, considerable expo- pected to ride out its present difficulties and con-
sure to the volatility of the market. tinue to drive the market, with the NOC (National
Despite this uncertainty, which may continue into Occupational Classification ???????) projected to
2016, Infield Systems remains positive for the account for a potential 25% share of global subsea
growth of the subsea sector over the longer pe- Capex demand and a 16% share of subsea tree
installations over the 2015-2019 ti-
meframe. French giant Total is also
expected to remain a strong driver
of subsea investment demand,
whilst Shell and BP are anticipated
to remain key players within the
GoM and West Africa markets.
Figure 1 shows global subsea Ca-
pex (US$ M) by region 2010-2019.
Figure 2 shows global subsea Ca-
pex (US$ M) by water depth (m)
2010-2019.
Fig. 1 – Global subsea Capex (US$ M) by region 2010-2019 (Source: Infield Africa
Systems’ Subsea Market Report to 2019)
Infield Systems expects the largest
Fig. 2 - Global subsea Capex (US$ M) by water depth (m) 2010-2019 (Source: proportion of global subsea Capex
Infield Systems’ Subsea Market Report to 2019) over the forthcoming five years to
be held by Africa at a 27% share,
led by demand from Angola, Ni-
geria and Ghana. The majority of
subsea investment in West Africa
is expected to be directed towards
developments at water depths of
1,000 m and greater, with a peak
year of spend projected for 2017.
Offshore West Africa, Angola is ex-
pected to lead subsea investment
demand, with a 58% share of re-
gional demand. Here, key fields are
anticipated to include Total’s Ka-
ombo 1 and 2 developments, whil-
st expansion of BP’s Plutonio and
PSVM projects is forecast to con-
tinue to demand significant spend.
Nigeria’s offshore investment po-
tential is likely to continue to re-
Impiantistica Italiana - Luglio-Agosto 2015 53
