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The “century of gas”
But, as we know, with today’s technologies the
renewables can provide electric power only inter-
mittently, only while there is sunshine and wind,
respectively, so they have to be paired with other
sources of energy to assure a day-long supply, in
the absence of fully economical energy storage sy-
Fig. 7 – Improving competitiveness of solar energy – Source: Bloomberg (2017) stems. This role will most likely be filled by gas,
as gas-fired combined-cycle plants can be turned
on and off relatively easily. Gas, therefore, in a few
decades will become the “fuel of the 21 century”,
st
the most popular primary source of energy (figure
9), important in its own right and as a complement
to renewables, overtaking first coal and then oil. It
is often said that gas will be the “last fossil fuel”,
because of its many advantages.
We therefore see a great future for gas as the fuel of
the future, generally and specifically for major new
capital projects to produce, treat, and transport it.
In particular, as shown in figure 10, we expect a
growing importance of new long-distance gas tra-
de, via pipelines (e.g. from Russia to China, TAP to
Italy from Azerbaijan, or Nord Stream 2 to Germany
from Russia, or Turkish Stream from Russia to Tur-
key, but even from Iran to India perhaps one day ...)
and in an ever growing way via LNG. Even though
in the short term there seems to be a gas and LNG
glut, the many economic and environmental advan-
tages of this fuel and its expected demand growth
Fig. 8 – Renewables shares of power generation, worldwide are such that most players and analysts foresee a
- Source: BP (2017) robust growth rate in LNG production, well excee-
ding the average growth in gas or more generally
of energy demand (figure 11). The LNG solution
benefits by currently low prices, but also from nu-
merous industry innovations, such as increasingly
dynamic and flexible gas pricing schemes favoring
spot markets, proven financing schemes, huge ex-
perience and activism of large players, increasing
globalization of gas markets and the growing usa-
ge of LNG as a direct fuel in ships and trucks.
Gas will become the “fuel of the 21
st
Century”, in its own right and as a
complement to renewable sources of
power production

To satisfy growing demand, after the big wave of
new LNG plants in Qatar over the last decade, in
recent years several LNG production plants have
Fig. 9 – Shares of primary energy - Source: BP (2017) come on stream, particularly in Australia. The next
big wave of LNG producing plants will be mostly in
the USA, who are taking advantage of the “Shale
ment skills of large E&C players. For example, Gas Revolution” to export more and more LNG to
there are several new wind farms in execution Asia and to Europe. In 2018 we expect several new
and on the drawing board in the North Sea, US LNG plants to come fully on stream (Freeport,
with nameplate capacities approaching 2,000 Elba Island, Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, etc.) as
MW each. (See the picture of Saipem’s huge well as others in Australia (Prelude, Ichthys) and
“old style” vessel at work building a new wind Russia (Yamal LNG). Additional large projects in
offshore project). the USA, in Russia, in Mozambique and elsewhere

20 Impiantistica Italiana - Gennaio- Febbraio 2018