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are on the drawing board, awaiting FIDs over the
Fig. 10 – Growing importance of the long-distance international gas trade by pipeline and
as LNG - Source: IEA (2017)
Fig. 11 – LNG supply to grow strongly, led by Australia and USA, as well as demand, led by
Far East and Europe - Source: BP (2017)
next few years, in order to come on stream in mid-
2020s. We expect the current oversupply to be ab-
sorbed without major difficulties.
Asia, particularly China and India, remains the key
market for future LNG growth, with increasing de-
mand also from Europe in order to balance imports
from Russia and North Africa, as the North Sea
gas supplies are in decline. China, in particular, has
embarked on several comprehensive programs
aimed at improving the quality of the environment
and reducing the emissions derived from the usage
of coal, by investing more and more in renewable
sources and in gas-fueled power plants and by
slowing down the rate of build-up of coal-fired ones
(China’s imports of LNG are increasing 40% on a
year-on-year basis). At the same time, the overall
consumption of energy per unit of Chinese GDP is
approaching that of advanced economies.
The popularity of LNG as a primary source of gas
has been facilitated also by the relative ease of de-
signing and building new regasification plants, often
floaters, not only in traditional markets but also in
new, developing countries (figure 12). In particular,
the floating regasification solution, where a large
part of the construction work can be standardized
and executed in a shipyard rather than on-site, of-
ten by converting existing LNG carriers, relatively
economically and certainly more quickly, has been
particularly welcome in developing countries which
have fewer infrastructures appropriate to support
the execution of major capital and infrastructural
projects. This technical solution has contributed to
a wider global use of LNG: the number of countries
importing LNG has doubled over the last decade, to
39 at present, a revolution in its own right.
Electric Vehicles and new trends in shared
transportation will certainly play a big role
and over a long time period will influence
the global energy picture
Another inevitable transition on the horizon – al-
beit most likely over a longer time-frame - is that
of electric mobility, where we have several new
trends going on simultaneously: vehicle electri-
fication, vehicle sharing, a disruptive increase in
automation. Forecasting the pace of penetration of
these breakthroughs over a longer period of time
is very difficult – but they are becoming realities
faster and faster. The electric vehicle penetration
forecasts differ widely (figure 13), but we can see
how with time all forecasts are adjusted upwards.
All of this will depend greatly on the breathtaking
pace of technology innovation, particularly that of
batteries and electricity storage systems, where
the efficiency is improving as rapidly as the reduc-
tion in cost.
While we look for opportunities in the E&C indust-
ry for new capital investments, an often neglected
Impiantistica Italiana - Gennaio- Febbraio 2018 21