Page 21 - Impiantitica industriale

Figure 1 - Hydrogen can
be used pure or to produce
other energy carriers like
ammonia and synthetic
fuels, and is especially
relevant in applications that
would be otherwise hard to
decarbonize
gure 1). Hydrogen’s energy density, potential role will further improve hydrogen’s competitiveness,
in energy storage, and ability to enable low or zero- and government subsidies will act as a catalyst to
carbon applications in industry and transportation accelerate learning and cost decline.
all point to hydrogen becoming an integral part of Our base case scenario, an integrated industry,
the energy mix. Indeed, hydrogen is already cost points toward a global market of 300 million metric
competitive in some applications in certain geo- tons (Mtons) by 2050 with the potential to establish
graphies, and it is difficult to see how some other- a profit pool of more than $250 billion (see Figure
wise hard-to-decarbonize parts of industry can 2). This would represent an initial period of modest
thrive without it. growth from 2020 to 2030, with demand accelera-
But hydrogen’s path is not straightforward, with its ting after that.
growth trajectory and profit pools yet to be deter- In this scenario, we assume most major industries
mined. Opportunities and timing will vary across will increase their use of hydrogen, some more than
regions and industries, depending on offtake po- others. For example, in transportation we expect
tential, supply conditions, and infrastructure re- battery electric vehicles to become the standard
quirements. Customer demand will be as or more for most vehicle categories, and hydrogen to play
important than supply availability. a role in specific vehicle classes like heavy-duty
Even so, the most plausible scenarios point to the trucks, or for specific applications where hydrogen
emergence of an attractive market, so it would be has an advantage over alternatives—for example,
a strategic misstep for energy companies to take where batteries would be too heavy. In this sce-
a backseat position. Across industries, executi- nario we assume transportation and industrial ap-
ves should be looking at the potential applications plications will make up 80% of the demand, with
for hydrogen and working back through the value power, heat, and other uses making up the rest.
chain to determine which are most feasible—and Since some of these high-potential applications
where to place their bets. To give executives a bet- will require significant investments in infrastructure Figure 2 - Three scenarios,
ter view of the possibilities, Bain analyzed the po- (for example, hydrogen fuel stations for transpor- based on speed of
tential market and identified five no-regrets actions tation) or process changeovers (such as replacing adoption, deliver vastly
to take in order to position your company for suc- traditional blast furnaces to enable a direct reduced different markets by 2050
cess in the hydrogen market of the future.

Hydrogen market scenarios
Bain researched several scenarios for the growth
of the hydrogen market, taking into consideration
the full range of potential future applications, hydro-
gen’s ability to play a meaningful role against zero-
emission alternatives, based on whether hydrogen
is the right solution, as well as factors such as cost
competitiveness, and the readiness of technology
and supply to meet demand. As renewable energy
becomes more cost competitive, green hydrogen
will become less expensive to produce. Supporting
technologies, such as carbon capture and elec-
trolyzers, will become less expensive as they are
built out. Increases in carbon prices and taxation

Impiantistica Italiana - Marzo-Aprile 2021 17