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components for oil & gas. Indeed, figure 6 shows
                                                                      that in year 2000 the exports of Italian valves,
                                                                      pumps, industrial boilers, turbines and gaskets ac-
                                                                      counted for more than 11% of global trade flows for
                                                                      those categories, but then shrunk to 8% in 2015.
                                                                      Indeed, over the last years, the contraction of the
                                                                      industry, together with the loss of competitiveness
                                                                      of Italian equipment providers when compared to
                                                                      Koreans, resulted in a slower increase in Italian ex-
                                                                      ports (6% CAGR in 5 years) compared to the mar-
                                                                      ket (+8%) and especially to Korean exports that
       Figure 6 –Italian and Korean exports share on total world export of selected components   grew faster than the market (+13%), as figure 7
       (valves, industrial boilers, gaskets, pumps and turbines)      indicates.
                                                                      Italian OFSE  manufacturers’ performance.
                                                                      Due to worsening market conditions, lower com-
                                                                      petitiveness against local and especially Korean
                                                                      competitors and limited impact of corrective ac-
                                                                      tions, Italian OFSE have seen their financial per-
                                                                      formance worsen in the last  years. As can be
                                                                      observed in figure 8, aggregated EBITDA as a per-
                                                                      centage of revenues has decreased from 15% in
                                                                      2014 to only 4% in 2015, while EBITDA in volumes
                                                                      has decreased by ~70% in the same period (as-
                                                                      sessment made on a panel of ca. 40 Italian OFSE
                                                                      manufacturers).



                                                                      However, the oil price slump
                                                                      has only accelerated an
                                                                      industry structural evolution
                                                                      that had started years before
                                                                      1  Increasing complexity was already
       Figure 7 – Export growth of Italian vs. Korean components
                                                                        driving structural changes within the
                                                                        industry


                                                                      Deepwater & Unconventional projects in-
                                                                      crease. In the last years, upstream projects have
                                                                      become more and more complex: deep offshore
                                                                      and unconventional investments were the new fron-
                                                                      tier. Major IOCs rushed into those harsher and more
                                                                      complex projects, putting margins at risk but moving
                                                                      away from competition of emerging NOCs and local
                                                                      players. As a result, from 2003 to 2014, 60% of giant
                                                                      oil field discoveries occurred in Deepwater. Exxon
                                                                      Mobil in 2011 had over 60% of its reserves in arctic,
                                                                      unconventional, heavy oil and Deepwater, against
                                                                      only around 20% in 2005. As Oil Companies turned
                                                                      into offshore and unconventional, oil field services
                                                                      providers adapted to the new industry challenges.
                                                                      In Brazil for example, as production from offshore
                                                                      was projected to double from 2012 to 2020 (from
                                                                      2.2mbpd to 4.1mbpd), most major OFSE set up lo-
                                                                      cal production to improve their competitive position
                                                                      in one of the biggest offshore markets at global level
                                                                      (ex. Baker Hughes, Halliburton, FMC Technologies,
       Figure 8 – EBITDA trend of main Italian OFSE manufacturers (panel of 40)
                                                                      Technip, Aker, Cameron, …).


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