Page 17 - Impiantistica industriale

OUTLOOK

The Ukraine war will not derail

Europe’s energy transition

As Europe struggles to build energy

security in response to Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, uncertainty looms
on many fronts. By turning its back on

Russian oil and gas, will Europe speed

or slow down its response to the more
global crisis – climate change?

Sverre Alvik geographically limited part of the world, comes at
Director of Energy Transition Research, DNV the cost of a profound humanitarian crisis.

Energy security

hat is a complicated question, and Roughly one third of European gas demand is used
hinges on the extent and duration for buildings heating and cooking, and
of the war. But, as things stand, our another third for electricity production.
conclusion is that improved energy Almost twenty percent is used by the European policymakers
security does not come at the cost manufacturing industry, and the re-
T of decarbonization and there is likely mainder in petrochemical industry and are determined to slash
to be a small acceleration in Europe’s energy tran- by the gas industry itself during pro-“the EU’s russian gas
sition. duction.
This feature outlines DNV’s provisional view on how European policymakers are determi- dependence by two-
the ongoing war is likely to impact Europe’s energy ned to slash the EU’s Russian gas de- thirds this year. The
transition in the short, medium, and long term. pendence by two-thirds this year. The replacement will be
Our emphasis here is on the consequences of un- replacement will be painful and costly,
folding developments and not on making policy re- with increased import of LNG taking painful and costly, with
commendations. The present commentary is con- centre stage. increased import of lng
fined to the implications of current developments However, there is currently insufficient
in Europe. regasification capacity in Europe, and taking centre stage
Elsewhere, in our Pathway to Net Zero Emis- production in places linked to the Eu-
sions (DNV, 2021), DNV sets out what we believe to ropean gas pipeline networks in Norway, Algeria
be a feasible way for the world to achieve the Paris and Azerbaijan can only inch their output upwards.
ambitions. The results from DNV’s energy transition Replacing two thirds of Russian gas by year-end lo-
model underpin the conclusions we present here, oks like a tall order, and the European energy secu-
but we underline the uncertainty in the quantifica- rity ambition therefore hinges on additional policies,
tion. We also acknowledge that the small accelera- such as those outlined by the IEA in its 10-point
tion of progress towards the Paris Agreement in a plan (IEA, 2022). Beyond nudging consumer be-

Impiantistica Italiana - Maggio-Giugno 2022 15