Page 20 - Impiantistica industriale

OUTLOOK

by the European nations to improve energy security
and sustainability.
However, as things currently stand, we forecast a
small acceleration of the energy transition in Eu-
rope as the most likely energy-related outcome of
the Ukraine war. As with COVID-19, we see a Eu-
rope that manages to cope with a short-term crisis
without harming its ability to deal with the long-
term climate crisis.
At a global level, the net effect of the war on the en-
ergy transition is minor. The DNV system dynamics
model captures some of the emerging global com-
plexities, including changes in energy trade and the
effect of increased commodity prices. It also takes
account of how regionalization and energy secu-
rity boost more short-term coal use in e.g. China,
and how the renewables buildout is slowed down
by higher commodity prices and at the same time
accelerated by the push for energy independence.
We will comment on these developments more fully
in our forthcoming Energy Transition Outlook 2022
the total emissions change is almost entirely due towards the end of this year.
to reduced gas consumption; the changes in the
other energy sources and in carbon capture and
storage (CCS) are minor in comparison.
References:
As things currently stand, we DNV, 2021 Pathway to net zero emissions, Energy
forecast a small acceleration of Transition Outlook, 2021, www.dnv.com/eto
IEA, 2022 A 10 point plan to reduce the European
“the energy transition in Europe Unions Reliance on Russian Gas, https://www.iea.
as the most likely energy- org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-euro-
pean-unions-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas
related outcome of the Ukraine Recharge, 2022 Germany and Norway mull pipe-
war line for massive hydrogen imports in wake of
Russian war, https://www.rechargenews.com/
energy-transition/germany-and-norway-mull-pipe-
We emphasize that there are signifi cant uncertain- line-for-massive-hydrogen-imports-in-wake-of-
ties in our forecast. These relate primarily to the russian-war/2-1-1186196
duration and outcome of the war itself, and the
strength duration of the policy measures enforced Printed with permission from DNV

Sverre Alvik

Director of Energy Transition Research, DNV. Sverre is responsible for DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook, a
forecast of the world’s energy system through to 2050. He coordinates DNV’s effort of understanding the
energy transition and how it will impact DNV’s customers and industries. Sverre has worked more than
20 years in DNV in the energy and maritime industry with strategy and politics, research & innovation,
environment and sustainability, technology and fi nance and the interface between them. He has written a
number of papers and publications on these topics.

18 18 Impiantistica Italiana - Maggio-Giugno 2022