Page 18 - Impiantistica industriale

OUTLOOK

European Union countries have
varying levels of dependency on
Russia for their natural gas supply.
Among member states, Germany
and Italy have the highest depend-
ency on Russia in terms of absolute
electricity generation. However, the
potential for renewables to reduce
dependency in Germany is signif-
icantly higher than in Italy based
on our wind and solar expectations
by 2023 – unless new and strong-
er policies are introduced and the
pace of implementation picks up.
France and the Netherlands’ de-
pendency on Russia gas is relatively
low, enabling a higher potential for
“Energy market developments in recent months renewables to displace natural gas. Conversely,
– especially in Europe – have proven once again in Austria, Hungary and Greece renewables ex-
the essential role of renewables in improving pansion remains limited to reduce the countries’
energy security, in addition to their well-estab- dependency on Russia
lished effectiveness at reducing emissions,” said
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Cutting red
tape, accelerating permitting and providing the Solar/Wind installation costs
right incentives for faster deployment of renew- up, but fossil prices have
ables are some of the most important actions
governments can take to address today’s energy risen even faster
security and market challenges, while keeping The current growth in renewable power capacity
alive the possibility of reaching our international would be even faster without the current supply
climate goals.” chain and logistical challenges. The cost of in-
stalling solar PV and wind plants is expected to
China, EU and Latin America remain higher than pre-pandemic levels through-
out 2022 and 2023 because of elevated com-
Renewables’ growth so far this year is much fast- modity and freight prices, reversing a decade of
er than initially expected, driven by strong policy declining costs. However, they remain competi-
support in China, the European Union and Lat- tive because prices for natural gas and other fos-
in America, which are more than compensating sil fuel alternatives have risen much faster.
for slower than anticipated growth in the United
States. The US outlook is clouded by uncertainty Global additions of solar PV capacity are on
over new incentives for wind and solar and by course to break new records in both this year
trade actions against solar PV imports from Chi- and next, with the annual market reaching 200
na and Southeast Asia. GW in 2023. Solar’s growth in China and India
is accelerating, driven by strong policy support
Prospects for 2023? for large-scale projects, which can be complet-
ed at lower costs than fossil fuel alternatives. In
Based on today’s policy settings, however, re- the European Union, rooftop solar installations by
newable power’s global growth is set to lose households and companies are expected to help
momentum next year. In the absence of stronger consumers save money as electricity bills rise.
policies, the amount of renewable power capac-
ity added worldwide is expected to plateau in
2023, as continued progress for solar is offset Wind: policy uncertainty
by a 40% decline in hydropower expansion and Policy uncertainties, as well as long and complex
little change in wind additions. permitting regulations, are preventing much fast-
While energy markets face a wide range of un- er growth for the wind industry. Having plunged
certainties, the strengthened focus by govern- 32% in 2021 after exceptionally high installations
ments on energy security and affordability – par- in 2020, additions of new onshore wind capacity
ticularly in Europe – is building new momentum are expected to recover slightly this year and next.
behind efforts to accelerate the deployment of New additions of offshore wind capacity are set
energy efficiency solutions and renewable en- to drop 40% globally in 2022 after having been
ergy technologies. The outlook for renewables buoyed last year by a huge jump in China as
for 2023 and beyond will therefore depend to a developers rushed to meet a subsidy deadline.
large extent on whether new and stronger pol- But global additions are still on course to be over
icies are introduced and implemented over the 80% higher this year than in 2020. Even with its
next six months. slower expansion this year, China will surpass

14 14 Impiantistica Italiana - Luglio-Agosto 2022