Page 33 - Impiantistica industriale

Governance, institutions, likely be derailed by an expanding conflict, and a
derailed transition could in turn multiply, by orders
and commitments could of magnitude, its catastrophic impact. The second
weaken at the international is that an acceleration of the transition postconflict
would only be possible given sufficient commitment
level but strengthen in from public-, private-, and social-sector leaders to
regional and private spheres recognize that investments in renewables, energy
efficiency, and decarbonization are not causes of
in the near term energy price increases and insecurity but solutions
to those problems. Forward-looking leadership will
The success of governance, institutions, and com- require leveraging the awareness of the moment
mitments depends on three conditions: having to seek a broad public mandate and to leverage
the necessary standards, market mechanisms, that mandate to make substantial, thoughtful, near-
and effective institutions in place; commitment term investments in these solutions and their sup-
by and collaboration among public-, private-, and porting supply chains.
social-sector leaders; and support from citizens For example, while commodity shortages and price
and consumers. In the near-term, the invasion of increase may exhibit a negative impact on the tran-
Ukraine could weaken all these requirements glob- sition in the near term, supply chain chokepoints,
ally, but also strengthen a subset of them in region- like lithium production in battery components, have
al and private spheres. long been identified as limiting factors to transi-
The war could negatively affect international coop- tion speed. The present supply shock highlights a
eration and jeopardize the creation of the interna- clear need and opportunity to make investments
tional standards, agreements, and institutions that in expanding and securing supply of key minerals,
a more orderly transition requires. Furthermore, which will not only have benefits for future transi-
the introduction of competing priorities at all levels tion speed, but also for lowering the costs of other
could deprioritize decarbonization and transition for common consumer goods, particularly electronics,
decision makers. For example, survey data support that require the same inputs.
a short-term weakening of attention on climate While near-term energy price rises could result in
across the public. an increase in fossil-fuel production and a revival
While a move toward increased national rivalries of recently decommissioned generation assets,
and the introduction of competing priorities could in the long term, energy-security concerns could
negatively affect international cooperation on many drive investment into energy efficiency and renew-
fronts, many major economies, including China, able energy as a key tool for energy independence
have entrenched incentives to continue to support and price management. For example, the latest
global action on the net-zero transition, given their proposed RePowerEU plan put forth by the EU
large and continued investment in producing green Commission on May 18 includes plans to almost
technologies and components. For example, China double European biomethane production and triple
produces a third of global wind turbines, 70 per- capacity of green hydrogen via production increas-
cent of global solar photovoltaics, and is home to es and imports by 2030, a massive deployment of
three-fourths of the world’s global capacity for lith- 510 gigawatts of installed wind and 600 gigawatts
ium-ion battery manufacturing. Importantly, com- of installed solar photovoltaic power by 2030, the
mitment by and among private- and social-sector installation of about 30 million heat pumps, the en-
leaders could also be strengthened in response to hancement of domestic manufacturing capability,
diminished international cooperation. Most corpo- and a substantial simplification of approval and
rate and social-sector entities are multinational, permitting processes for renewable generation and
benefit from coordination, and thus have incentives infrastructure development projects, all over the
to maintain strong international ties. next eight years. Such policies could be further ac-
celerated by the fact that despite input price rises,
A short-term detour construction of net-new solar and wind capacity
remains faster and more economical than coal or
or a long-term deviation? natural gas.
Energy-efficiency measures have long been eco-
Considering these new forces and differing effects, nomically viable, but have often failed to attract
we believe that the war would overall have a neg- sufficient public mandate for deployment. Survey
ative impact on the key requirements in the short data now suggest 80 percent of European citi-
term and cause a detour on the path of a more zens support government subsidies for improving
orderly transition. The long-term impact, however, home energy efficiency. Similar levels of support
could still prove a positive turning point if leaders are also seen in the United States, where 89 per-
act with farsightedness and courage and if they are cent of respondents to a March 2022 Gallup poll
supported by a growing popular mandate in doing demonstrated support for tax credits for home
so. renewable-energy systems, 71 percent setting fu-
This future hinges on two things. The first is that the el-efficiency standards for cars, trucks, and buses,
scope of the war in Ukraine remains contained and and 61 percent tax incentives for the purchase of
does not widen. The net-zero transition would very electric vehicles, among other policies. Some of

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