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Fig. 4 – US LNG (Liquified Supply and prices of oil & gas Conclusion
Natural Gas) exports flattens
the supply curve There is ample empirical proof that when global The energy industry and leadership can perhaps
supply of oil & gas is greater than global demand, it be fairly described as a sphinx without a riddle.
leads to a sharp drop in price (figure 3). At first they refused to believe that it was possible
Today the global supply of oil, thanks to to extract hydrocarbons from shale rock. They
shale, is around 3 million barrels per-day. The were proven wrong by a courageous Independent
surplus situation is even greater for natural gas. named George Mitchell. Now they refuse to accept
Consequently, in oil alone, the difference between that shale will have a fundamental long term
supply and demand will grow to 4-5 million barrels impact; that the oil & gas glut and low prices are
per-day in the not distant future. This will keep oil long lasting, not cyclical but structural. Once again
prices in the $ 40 - $ 60 per-barrel range for at least they are wrong to refuse seeing the obvious.
decades unless a general war breaks out.

A currently natural gas and LNG This US shale gas will be very competitive
glut compared to many other countries. This
too will contribute to the long term energy
There is currently a natural gas and LNG (Liquified
Natural Gas) glut in the world. It will only get glut and low energy prices.
worse, driving LNG price ever lower (figure 4).
The driver for lower prices will be a tidal wave of Chi pecora si fa, il lupo se la mangia. Or, to translate
shale gas coming out of the United States. This the Italian: Those who make themselves sheep will
US shale gas will be very competitive compared be eaten by the wolf.
to many other countries. This too will contribute
to the long term energy glut and low energy
prices.

La “Shale Revolution” e un futuro a lungo
termine con energia a basso prezzo

La leadership dell’industria globale degli idrocarburi non è riuscita a prevedere la possibilità di estrarre
idrocarburi dalla shale rock in maniera economica. Di conseguenza, non è riuscita a percepirne l’impatto
sull’offerta di energia, sulla geopolitica e sull’economia nazionale degli Stati Uniti. Non ha previsto che la “Shale
Revolution” avrebbe ristrutturato totalmente le imprese e la catena del valore nel settore degli idrocarburi negli
Stati Uniti. Sfortunatamente, non ha capito che stavamo passando da un’epoca di scarsità di energia a una di
abbondanza.
Troppi leader in questo settore non vedono che i cambiamenti apportati da questa rivoluzione non sono fattori
ciclici ma fondamentali. Ci troviamo quindi di fronte a un futuro a lungo termine con energia a basso prezzo, in
cui l’offerta di petrolio e del gas supererà la domanda globale.

Impiantistica Italiana - Settembre-Ottobre 2015 21