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PRIMARY ENERGY






                            ownership of gas takes place increases. And the   such reforms in the professional community. The-
                            last condition will be the possibility of hedging gas   re were some hopes on the development of the
                            transactions with derivative financial instruments.  Concept for the Development of the Internal Gas
                            Additionally, gas business in Russia was strongly   Market  (Concept),  which  the  Government  of  the
                            influenced by the change of the gas markets com-  Russian Federation in 2014 was going to develop
                            petition content. Along with competition with alter-  as part of the  adjustment of key  strategic docu-
                            native fuels (including RES), competition between   ments of the industry - the General Scheme for the
                            gas from different sources of supply, which is de-  development of the gas industry and the Eastern
                            veloping  in various  directions,  including-the  geo-  Gas Program.
                            graphy of supplies; LNG vs. pipeline gas; traditio-
                            nal vs. non-traditional gas; a new type of intra-fuel   Today there is a wide
                            competition is emerging – between suppliers of
                            various gas energy products (gas energy products   understanding that the current
                            competition), which most fully meet the needs of “RF natural gas market structure
                            consumers in the areas, conditions and terms of   is outdated and could hardly
                            delivery.
                                                                          deliver solution for many
                            Transformation                                complex problems that the
                            of the Russian gas market:                    development of Russian gas
                            results and prospects                         industry is facing
                                                                      It was assumed that the Concept would address
                            Over the past more than 20 years of modern histo-  the following issues: the new legal and regulatory
                            ry, the gas market of Russia, as noted above, has   framework establishing the rules for non-discrimi-
                            undergone significant transformations. Some of   natory access to UGSS and non-UGSS systems;
                            them were internally contradictory or not so consi-  increasing transparency of gas pricing and crea-
                            stent, in some part, they were too late, or they were   ting equal conditions for all of its participants; pre-
                            premature and did not correspond to the traditio-  venting subsidies by domestic consumers of gas
                            nal institutional structures. Despite this, their gene-  transportation for export; plans to expand the gas
                            ral intention was de-monopolization of the industry   transportation infrastructure in the eastern direction
                            and the market. Today, among key stakeholders,   and to develop gasification of the regions. Howe-
                            there is a wide, but not clear enough, understan-  ver, this work has been suspended.
                            ding that the current RF natural gas market struc-  The new version of the RF 2035 Energy Strategy
                                                                                                            3
                            ture is outdated and could hardly deliver solution   does not provide for changes in the management
                            for many complex problems that the development   model of the Unified Gas Supply System, althou-
                            of Russian gas industry is facing now and will face   gh  it  suggests  increasing  the  transparency  of
                            in the next decade. Among these problems is the   Gazprom’s activities as its owner and operator. The
                            growing competition of suppliers in the main world   proposed steps include improving the regulation of
                            energy markets in the context of slowdown in gas   gas transportation through main gas pipelines and
                            consumption, especially in Europe.        UGS facilities, increasing the transparency of ac-
                            However, there is no consensus on the direction of   cess to the GTS and the feasibility of tariff setting.
                                                                      With regard to gas exports, the monopoly (single
                                                                      export channel) will remain in the pipeline gas. Ho-
                                                                      wever, the Energy Strategy admits that, if necessa-
                                                                      ry, the issue of the possibility of gas supplies from
                                                                      independent producers through a single export
                                                                      channel  will  be  considered.  A  different  approach
                                                                      is declared in relation to LNG. Liberalization of its
                                                                      exports  will  continue  if  mechanisms  are  in  place
                                                                      capable to prevent competition between Russian
                                                                      pipeline gas and LNG in the global energy markets.
                                                                      In terms of LNG export volumes, the Energy Stra-
                                                                      tegy sets specific targets of 46 - 65 million tons in
                                                                      2024 and 80 - 140 million tons - in 2035. At the
                                                                      same time, there are no such targets for pipeline
                                                                      gas. It is only said that Russia will occupy the 1st or
                                                                      2nd place in the world in the export of pipeline gas
                                                                      within the mentioned time frames.
                                                                      In view of the fact that the movement of the Rus-
                                                                      sian gas market along the path of developing com-
                                                                      petition has not yet become irreversible, we see the
                                                                      prospects of transformation in two possible scena-
                                                                      rios: the movement towards the consolidation of


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