Page 32 - Impiantistica industriale

SCENARI

Daslav Brkic

Consulente di direzione aziendale per il marketing e business development, con esperienza pluridecennale nell’industria
dell’impiantistica nei settori Oil&Gas, environment, power e telecomunicazioni.
Visiting Professor presso le Graduate School of Management e il Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica del Politecnico di
Milano, la BiG Academy e la Baker Hughes University di Firenze. Ha anche insegnato alla International Business School
della Gubkin State University of Oil&Gas a Mosca.
La sua esperienza include molteplici incarichi nel business development, vendita, sviluppo tecnologico, licensing, pia-
nificazione strategica, negli U.S.A., in Gran Bretagna, Olanda e Italia, inizialmente con Honeywell UOP, ABB e Sirti.
Dal 2002 al 2016 in Saipem (i primi anni Snamprogetti), dove come Senior Vice President ha diretto il business de-
velopment, la pianificazione strategica, la comunicazione esterna e le relazioni istituzionali, lo sviluppo tecnologico e il
licensing.
Dopo la laurea in Ingegneria Chimica presso il Politecnico di Milano nel 1975, ha conseguito nel 1979 il Dottorato di
Ricerca in Ingegneria Chimica da un programma congiunto tra il Politecnico di Erlangen–Norimberga, Germania, e il
Politecnico di Milano. In seguito, ha frequentato il programma M.B.A. presso la University of Chicago e corsi executive
di strategia industriale presso la Stanford University e le Corporate University di ABB ed Eni.
Oggi è Direttore Editoriale delle riviste “Impiantistica italiana” e “Industrial Plants” e consulente per il Centro studi
dell’ANIMP; membro associato del CEEPR - Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research del MIT e del Paris
Energy Club.
E’ stato Vice Presidente di ANIMP, Consigliere e board member di Assomineraria, World Energy Council, Society of
Petroleum Engineers e di altre associazioni industriali internazionali e italiane; è stato anche membro dei Comitati per
l’Internalizzazione di Confindustria e di Assolombarda.
Ha scritto oltre 150 articoli e memorie presentate a convegni internazionali.

Towards the transition. But at a slow pace

What future for the world of energy?

While trying to forecast the future is an overwhelming task, particularly in today’s incredibly uncertain world, we
can still relatively safely believe that the energy transition will continue its path, albeit somewhat more slowly than
expected originally. Not everybody is fully convinced, the programmed investments are insufficient, but the factors in
favor are many more and stronger than the adverse winds. Under current policies, there should be a gradual decre-
ase in the climate-change emissions, which could result in a temperature increase in a few decades of 2.8 – 3.0 °C,
certainly more than + 1.5 °C hoped for the Paris Agreement, already achieved in 2024. The overall Net Zero goal will
not be attained, under current policies worldwide.
Under today’s circumstances and policies, we can expect the following key trends:
• A major acceleration towards a growing demand for electric power, all or mostly fueled by a drastic increase in
the production from renewable sources – a key first manifestation of the Energy Transition;
• A growth in the production and diffusion of electric vehicles, mostly but not only in China. Analysts still expect
major EV market shares over the next decade;
• The demand for oil and coal to continue growing just a little for a few years more; then to reach a plateau, before
initiating a gradual decline;
• The future demand for gas is more uncertain, as it depends greatly on the speed and extent of the energy
transition. Therefore, depending on the scenario, it could increase (most likely) or decrease after a plateau in the
next decades, under a less likely Net Zero scenario;
• The growth of the ‘Hydrogen Economy’ – particularly for hard-to-abate applications - and a more widespread
return to nuclear are highly probable, but most likely this will take more time.
Investments in the traditional, fossil fuel driven markets will continue their growth path and the post-Covid recovery,
but they have been already overtaken by investments in new green application – a trend to continue with an ever-
growing emphasis well into the future.

28 Impiantistica Italiana - Gennaio-Febbraio 2025