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industry

Tackling a digital transformation requires a su- Most refiners will increase the proportion of
stained commitment from the organization, petrochemicals in their product slates, with
from planning the transformation all the way no shortage of options available, including
through to its execution inside and outside the high-olefins fluid catalytic cracking (FCC),
company. (For more, see the Bain Brief “Or- high-severity FCC, deep catalytic cracking,
chestrating a Successful Digital Transforma- isocracking and mixed-feed steam cracking.
tion.”) Ultimately, market potential and the ability to
• Take a comprehensive approach to refi- remain flexible should guide these decisions,
ning margin. The volatility implied in the th- especially in regions like Western Europe,
ree scenarios we describe makes it difficult to where petrochemical demand will not be as
evaluate capital investments, even for small dynamic as in the Asia-Pacific region. Since
debottlenecks. demand for transpor-
Advanced simu- Refiners can make better tation fuels and pe-
lations can help trochemicals appears
refiners to better investment decisions by planning destined to continue
assess crude diet “around three likely scenarios for to rise in Asia-Pacific
changes, product the evolution of energy markets: in even the weakest
slate optimiza- growth scenarios, re-
tions, and oppor- Oil and Gas Superabundance, finers there should
tunities for debot- Market Montage and Green consider investing in
tlenecking and technologies that could
upgrades. Also, Transformation leapfrog them to more
the latest genera- advanced positions,
tion of simulators like oil-to-chemicals
and tools for linear optimization give refiners and other setups more aligned with a low-
a more comprehensive view of the integrated carbon future.
value chain and the best ways to enhance
margins, from oil sourcing to dynamic pricing The refining sector is poised to enter a cycle of na-
and product mix changes. Choosing the right tural selection that will separate the fittest from the
tools can be challenging, but it is essential. rest, based on how well they adapt to the upco-
And investments here can generate a value ming energy transition and whether they are able to
comparable to plant upgrades without the hef- capture the benefits of digital technology. Even the
ty capital spending (or at least minimizing it). strongest players may find themselves challenged
• Think through your next plant upgrade to maintain a competitive edge as they evaluate
and new builds. No refinery is likely to survive and implement an array of new technology initiati-
the next business cycle without some level of ves, and work to position the industry as a facilita-
upgrades, even if just to meet cleaner fuel spe- tor of a low-carbon energy sector. In the short term,
cifications. Refiners should determine which refiners may get a boost from new regulations that
mixes are accessible to them within each sce- mandate cleaner fuels, which will require many
nario, in terms of heat or power generation, ships to switch to diesel. But over the longer term,
light-duty vehicles, heavy road transportation, a structured approach to identify the highest-value
aviation and marine uses, and chemicals. opportunities will increase their odds for success.

54 54 Impiantistica Italiana - Luglio-Agosto 2019